And The Winner Is…

2016 Olympic Trials begin this Sunday. Over the next 8 days swimmers will be selected to the 2016 US Olympic Team based upon their performance at the Trials. Times swum previously do not count in the selection process. In the individual events only the fastest two times – swum in the Finals – are considered. Prelim times and entry times are just that – history. Here is a look at the favorites based upon the psych sheet in the order these events will be contested at Trials.

MEN 400 IM: TYLER CLARY, CHASE KALISZ

WOMEN 100 FLY: DANA VOLLMER, KELSI WORRELL

MEN 400 FREE: CONNOR JAGER, ZANE GROTHE

WOMEN 400 IM: MAYA DIRADO, ELIZABETH BEISEL

MEN 100 BREAST: CODY MILLER, NIC FINK

WOMEN 100 BACK:  NATALIE COUGHLIN, MISSY FRANKLIN

MEN 200 FREE: RYAN LOCHTE, CONOR DWYER

WOMEN 100 BREAST: KATIE MEILI, LILLY KING

MEN 100 BACK: DAVID PLUMMER, MATT GREVERS

WOMEN 400 FREE: KATIE LEDECKY, LEAH SMITH

WOMEN 200 FREE: KATIE LEDECKY, MISSY FRANKLIN

MEN 200 FLY: MICHAEL PHELPS, JACK CONGER

WOMEN 200 IM: MAYA DIRADO, MELANIE MARGALIS

MEN 100 FREE: NATHAN ADRIAN, MICHAEL PHELPS

WOMEN 200 FLY: CAMMILE ADAMS, KATIE MCLAUGHLIN

MEN 200 BREAST: KEVIN CORDES, JOSH PRENOT

WOMEN 100 FREE: SIMONE MANUEL, MISSY FRANKLIN

MEN 200 BACK: TYLER CLARY, RYAN MURPHY

WOMEN 200 BREAST: MICAH LAWRENCE, LAURA SOGAR

MEN 200 IM: MICHAEL PHELPS, RYAN LOTCHE

MEN 50 FREE: NATHAN ADRIAN, CAELEB DRESSEL

WOMEN 800 FREE: KATIE LEDECKY, BECCA MANN

MEN 100 FLY: MICHAEL PHELPS, TOM SHIELDS

WOMEN 200 BACK: MISSY FRANKLIN, MAYA DIRADO

WOMEN 50 FREE: MADISON KENNEDY, SIMONE MANUEL

MENS 1500 FREE: CONNOR JAEGER, JORDAN WILIMOVSKY

At the end of the meet some of these names will be on the 2016 Team. Others will not, having been replaced by those not yet considered to be a favorite. And that is precisely why the meet is held…entry times are only a statement of previous behavior. While that can be viewed as an indicator, possibly even a predictor of future performance we know that it is not 100% a guarantee of anything. There are always a few who make the team that no one is seriously considering today. Conversely there are a few who are favored who will fall short…by a little or a lot.

Think for a moment about the lead the Warriors had after 4 games. They were up 3 games to 1. Cleveland was down 3 to 1 and had to swim 3 in a row, 2 of them on the road. No team had ever done that before…but now one team has done it.

Omaha will have several similar stories on Monday, July 4^th.

(see the entire entry list on the USA Swimming website…great reading!)